Friday, January 4, 2008

டாலர் அரசியல்

டாலர் அரசியல்



அறிவன் said...
அறிவன் அவர்களுடைய இந்த comment நான் publish செய்தும் வரவில்லை. எனவே அவருடைய பெயரில் நான் மீண்டும் இட்டு publish செய்கிறேன்

Hello,
There is an underlying point of difference in the article.
Why the oil consuming countries need to export goods for the sake of getting dollar.
As you said they need dollar to buy oil,which they can straight away buy from treasury markets..
Why they need to choose a distant route of exporting at the terms of USA & get dollar?
Don't you think it is a bit unacceptable view?
It is on the other way actually..Countries like china & Japan has lot of productivity.For their commercial vilability they have to llok for markets..
During Second world war USA sell lot of arms and infrastructure for europian countries and in turn had made lot of wealth.
Aftermath they concentrate mainly on technology,arms & scientific inventions whereas common things like cloths,toys were taken from countries who offer them...
Here comes China & japan's part to sell things to have their commerce good..

Give me your opinion..

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8:48 PM
சதுக்க பூதம் said...
//Why the oil consuming countries need to export goods for the sake of getting dollar.
As you said they need dollar to buy oil,which they can straight away buy from treasury markets..
Why they need to choose a distant route of exporting at the terms of USA & get dollar?//

US won't give treasury bond free to any country. If you want to buy something, you need to pay something. We are paying dollar to buy treasury bond.They will give bond only for $. That is the whole idea behind petro dollar politics.

//Countries like china & Japan has lot of productivity.For their commercial vilability they have to llok for markets..//
That is partially true. Real value of their money is kept low in order to accumilate $. That is because $ is common currency of world. It made to common currency before 1970's because of its inherant strength and convertibility of $ to gold. After that Nixon's ammendment, $ plays as a world currency because petrol sold only for $.That is unacceptable. If that petrol-$ link lost, no country will try to export US in large scale. In fact China/Japan money value will be comparitively high as it has its inherant strength.

//During Second world war USA sell lot of arms and infrastructure for europian countries and in turn had made lot of wealth.//
I accept it.

//Aftermath they concentrate mainly on technology,arms & scientific inventions whereas common things like cloths,toys were taken from countries who offer them...//
That is true. But USA competes against Europe with the power of petro dollar. Europe also does the same thing. Apart from IT, europe is more competitive than USA.They don't have the luxary of over spending (US does with petro dollar). India,china and Japan has to concentrate more on accumilating dollar to run day today business. So they need to concentarte more on servicing US rather than investing on innovation.
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12:38 AM
அறிவன் /#11802717200764379909/ said...
>>>>>>>>>.
//Why the oil consuming countries need to export goods for the sake of getting dollar.
As you said they need dollar to buy oil,which they can straight away buy from treasury markets..
Why they need to choose a distant route of exporting at the terms of USA & get dollar?//

US won't give treasury bond free to any country. If you want to buy something, you need to pay something. We are paying dollar to buy treasury bond.They will give bond only for $. That is the whole idea behind petro dollar politics.
>>>>>>>>

I meant treasury route as buying $ in open treasury/currency market..
They haven't to choose a distant route of manufacturing just to accumulate $..so my CONTENTON is that since inherently they have the manufacturing capacity for the USA markets,they do exports,not JUST FOR getting $.
But majaority of their earnings go to USA back becuase of intelligent deal USA has with saudi arabia.....

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10:16 AM
சதுக்க பூதம் said...
//I meant treasury route as buying $ in open treasury/currency market..
They haven't to choose a distant route of manufacturing just to accumulate $..so my CONTENTON is that since inherently they have the manufacturing capacity for the USA markets,they do exports,not JUST FOR getting $.
But majaority of their earnings go to USA back becuase of intelligent deal USA has with saudi arabia.....
//

Now I understand what do u want to say.
What i mean is,
if US $ is not common currency due to petrol-$ link,
1)economy of Countries with inherant strength in natural resources(third world countries) and countries who has competitiveness in manufacturing and services will soar.Now they are in bad need of $, so they make their resources more cheap to get $. Because now $ is more precious than whatever resource,they have.
POSSIBLE impact would be,american may need to spend more money to buy things than before and thirld world/developing world may grow well.
US can not spend uncontrollable expenditure on wars and military

Now US money value is less.It reduces interest rate. But still inflation is not a problem in US. This will not happen.
US has to tax corporations more and they can not spend more on innovation.

What do u think about this view?

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சதுக்க பூதம் said...
Thanks for ur constructive argument

//USA need to pay more $ only when the other currency is stronger,not while they are WEAKER..
For instance say:100 yuvan buys $50 normally,china had made it's currency at HIGHER VALUR ARTIFICIALLY as say: 100 yuvan buys $60.
//

Transaction for the treasury bond happens with $, not with $-Yuan.They need to pay $ to buy bonds. I don't think that Yuan value won't impact on this transaction.

//Now USA pressurised china because of this factor, to peg dollar with Yuvan in open market...I guess this happened during end of 2006..
Now the inherent strenght of currencies are decided by treasury/currency market strength..
//

This is true. If Yuan value strengthened, American products will be more competitive(theoritically).US expects that their trade deficit may reduce because of that.I feel that it will only make shift for US corporation for imported goods from china to other countries.

//There are many factors now for the weakness of $ viz. countries like china have started de-investing their US $ bonds, Euro & Pound are becoming stronger etc..
Since USA started to realise that they cannot rely for too long with saudi arabia deal of 'Oil only in $ price' they started their own massive exploration trails in USA(So far USA never touched OIL reserves under theit own land & sand).
But now because of some country muslim bombers started to make mighty USA bent to ite knees,there is a compelling feel to come out of petro-dollar policy and OPEC politics.........

Guess this itself is a matter of another post......//

You are correct. i am writting about it in my next post. Shift of financial global power, where petrodollar goes

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